Maqashid al-Syari‘ah dan Perlindungan UMKM di Tengah Volatilitas Harga Minyak Dunia dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah di Indonesia

Abstract

The rise in plastic raw material prices in recent years has become a serious challenge for UMKM in Indonesia. This is influenced by global dynamics, particularly fluctuations in world oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. The plastics industry's dependence on petroleum makes domestic production costs vulnerable to international economic fluctuations. This study aims to analyze the influence of world oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate on plastic prices, as well as their impact on UMKM production costs in Indonesia. The study uses a quantitative approach with econometric methods based on time series data for the 2018–2024 period. Data were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and international institutions. The analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression with world oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate as independent variables, and plastic prices and UMKM production costs as dependent variables. The results show that world oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate significantly influence plastic prices in Indonesia. Furthermore, the increase in plastic prices has been shown to significantly increase UMKM production costs. Macroeconomic stability and management of global commodity price risks are crucial for maintaining the sustainability of UMKM This research can serve as a basis for the government in formulating policies to stabilize raw material prices and protect UMKM.