Ketidakpastian Ekonomi sebagai Pemoderasi Hubungan Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga Kebijakan, dan Nilai Tukar dengan Inflasi di Indonesia

Abstract

Inflation in Indonesia reflects domestic monetary conditions and economic uncertainty, which may alter their relationship with prices. This study examines the associations of broad money (M2), Bank Indonesia's policy rate, and the rupiah exchange rate with inflation, while testing the moderating role of economic uncertainty. The analysis uses quarterly secondary data covering 2015–2024, comprising 40 quarters and 39 effective observations after first-difference transformations. Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) was estimated using EViews 13. The results indicate a negative and statistically significant main coefficient for changes in M2 (p = 0.0008) and a positive and significant coefficient for exchange rate changes (p = 0.0391). The coefficient for policy rate changes is not significant at the 5% level (p = 0.0556). Economic uncertainty has a positive and significant coefficient, while all three interaction coefficients are negative and statistically significant. The model explains 78.65% of the dependent variable's variation within the estimation sample. These findings suggest that monetary–inflation relationships vary across uncertainty levels, although negative interaction coefficients do not uniformly indicate weaker associations. The study underscores the relevance of uncertainty in monetary policy assessment while acknowledging specification limitations and evidence of possible residual autocorrelation.