Pengaruh Pengangguran dan Inflasi terhadap Life Expectancy at Birth di ASEAN dengan Moderasi Universal Health Coverage
Keywords:
Inflation, Life Expectancy at Birth, Unemployment, UHC IndexAbstract
This study examines the relationship between unemployment and inflation and life expectancy at birth (LEB) in five ASEAN countries over the 2013–2022 period, with the Universal Health Coverage (UHC) Index employed as a moderating variable. Panel least squares models are estimated using both a baseline specification and interaction models (UHC×unemployment and UHC×inflation) to assess whether health system strength mitigates the effects of macroeconomic shocks on longevity. The baseline results indicate that unemployment has a negative but statistically insignificant association with LEB (p = 0.3672), while inflation shows a negative and weakly significant effect at the 10% level (p = 0.0645). When moderation is introduced, the UHC index exhibits a positive and highly significant effect on LEB, and overall model fit improves substantially, with R² values ranging from approximately 0.885 to 0.896. The interaction between UHC and unemployment is negative and significant at the 10% level (p = 0.0862), suggesting that higher UHC levels attenuate the marginal relationship between unemployment and life expectancy. Similarly, in the inflation moderation model, inflation becomes strongly significant (p = 0.0050), and the UHC×inflation interaction is negative and highly significant (p = 0.0033), indicating that stronger UHC systems reduce the sensitivity of longevity outcomes to inflationary pressures. Overall, the findings suggest that the impact of macroeconomic conditions on population health is conditional on institutional capacity, underscoring the importance of strengthening UHC coverage, service quality, and financial protection in tandem with price stabilization and labor market support policies for vulnerable populations.
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